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2025-11-16 21:20
Stocks finished mixed last week, with only the tech-heavy Nasdaq finishing lower by 0.45%. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average squeezed out gains, finishing up 0.08% and 0.34%, respectively. There's a defensive rotation taking place right now, and a lot of the high-flying momentum names have come down hard. Even so, there's a whole new batch of opportunities forming right now, mostly in healthcare and biotech.



The reopening of the US government following the longest shutdown in history could give stocks the juice they need for a rally into year-end. Let's see if the anxieties over prolonged economic disruptions like delayed federal data releases and furloughed worker spending cuts have been fully priced in.
Estimates suggests that the shut down shaved roughly 0.2 percentage points off GDP on a weekly basis. However, stocks have historically performed well coming out of government shutdowns – but the big question is – how much of this has already been priced in?
One thing for sure is – there's a massive rotation taking place underneath the surface of the market. The leading themes from earlier this year are now starting to struggle, as setups in healthcare and financials start to blossom. The next stage of the market cycle appears to be taking hold.
It looks like another round of stimulus checks are coming for the economy. The timing is still up in the air, but most Americans will spend it away quickly. Others may opt to try their fortune in trading, which could add some more speculative flavor to the market.
In reality, the inflation story is at the mercy of commodity prices. Stimulus checks will get people spending again, and with that, the potential for money velocity (a key factor in inflation) could surge. Velocity is simply how fast money changes hands – the faster it does, the higher inflation gets.
The Fed wants to lower rates. I think they will again in December. Coupled with the end of quantitative tightening, the amount of liquidity about to be sent into the market will be astronomical. The inflation line the Fed is walking here is a very tight one – they need to tread carefully.

There's been some pretty remarkable developments over the past week here, as technology (XLK) is barely holding on to its position as the top-performing sector since the start of Q3. Now we have healthcare (XLV) vying for pole position.
I'm okay with seeing healthcare's comeback – but let me be clear – this completely changes the dynamic of the market. The high-flying tech names are due for a rest here, and the more conservative names in healthcare have begun to rip.
We still see consumer staples (XLP) at the bottom of the pack – I'm glad to see this. But consumer discretionary (XLY) has slipped notably, which isn't a good sign near-term. It's pretty unstable across the board at the moment.
| 1 week | 3 Weeks | 13 Weeks | 26 Weeks |
| Healthcare | Energy | Healthcare | Technology |
Editor's Note: Healthcare's momentum is accelerating.
This looks to be shaping up us the strongest theme going into year-end and into the first quarter of 2026. In recent weeks, I've been highlighting the emerging strength of the healthcare sector, and how it's on the verge of taking some of the burden off the shoulders of tech.
Remember, healthcare is the second-largest sector of the S&P 500 behind tech. It's not done much over the past year. The healthcare sector hasn't hit a new all-time high since September 2024.
But it's the biotech sector (IBB) that I'm watching most closely. It falls within the broader healthcare (XLV) umbrella, and the fact that we've already broken out from the rounding bottom pattern, and created higher-highs and higher-lows is sending a signal that a new uptrend is in effect here. Biotech is going to be a big story.

There's a battle going on when it comes to inflation right now. Crude oil prices aren't rising meaningfully, and it's creating tension for those looking for higher prices imminently. But I want to highlight the ratio between commodities (DBC) and the S&P 500 (SPY) to illustrate how to play rising prices.
Commodities (DBC) will outperform when inflation pressures are accelerating. Stocks (SPY) will outperform when inflation pressures are present, but not increasingly on a regular basis. Hence why this ratio has been dropping for a few years now.
If inflation starts accelerating again, it'll be time to rotate back into commodities. But until then, it's better off to be overweight stocks. Keep an eye on energy prices, because if they start climbing again, I'd expect DBC to start outperform SPY by a notable margin.

The ratio I'm sharing here, between investment-grade corporate debt (LQD) and 3-7 Year Treasuries (IEI) is my favorite when it comes to measuring market liquidity. Remember, bond markets are way bigger than stock markets. Bonds lead, stocks follow.
Now, this leadership doesn't have to be in any particular direction. Bonds can be bullish while stocks are bearish, and vice versa. In fact, they can even trend in the same direction. It just depends on the overall macro environment.
When high-quality corporate debt outperforms Treasuries, which are considered to be the "risk free" asset, it's a good signal from the bond market. It means that investors have the confidence to take on an additional level of risk. When Treasuries outperform, it signals underlying issues are rising.
I've been monitoring this rounding bottom pattern for a couple of years now, and a breakout from this pattern would signal that liquidity conditions are set to improve tremendously. In fact, it's probably sniffing out the further rate cuts from the Fed now.
Once inflation makes its dreaded return, I would look for this ratio to start dropping hard. It would also mean that the Fed would face pressure to start raising rates again. Although based on what I'm seeing now, it seems like they would try to fight that pressure as much as possible.

The tension in the crypto market could be cut with a knife right now. I want to focus on Bitcoin again this week because it is the tide that lifts the rest of the ships. Right now, it's desperately holding onto support in the 100,00-105,000 zone.
If this level were to break, a final washout as low as 93,000-94,000 could pan out. However, I'm not seeing the same level of vulnerability in Ethereum as I am in Bitcoin, which says a lot about the stage of this decline.
To regain its bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs to close back above 110,000-113,000. It needs to hold within the wedge formation. The leaves the door open for an upside acceleration in time. If it drops to 93,000-94,000, it may not last very long.
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