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2025-12-08 03:21
It was the exact type of market bulls needed to see last week. Tech reasserted itself into the leadership position, and the Nasdaq led the way higher, finishing up 0.91%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its highest weekly level in history, as it rallied 0.50%. The S&P 500 closed at a weekly record as well, as it rallied 0.31%. As bullish as stocks look right now, crypto is still having some problems, but let's see if Powell's rate cut this week can give the bulls what they need. It looks like Santa Claus is coming to town after all (but remember, he doesn't technically arrive until after Christmas for stocks).



It looks like Kevin Hassett is all but a lock as the next Fed Chair. This appointment marks a historic reversal of the post-2008 monetary regime, and shifts the Federal Reserve from an independent inflation hawk to a liquidity tool coordinated with the executive branch, while restoring the Treasury as the ideological center of economic policy—echoing the 1940s–1950s era of financial repression.
Alongside Scott Bessent, this setup would prioritize nominal growth over austerity, accepting higher controlled inflation and deficits to outgrow or inflate away massive debt, engineering lower real rates, soft yield caps, and implicit QE to support risk assets, industry, and national strength.
Markets may initially act confused, but this growth-first, politically aligned framework—hostile to savers and cash yet bullish for equities, Bitcoin, and real assets—ends "higher for longer" rates and represents an ideological break from Powell's post-GFC orthodoxy. We are preparing accordingly.
Under Scott Bessent's leadership, the U.S. Treasury has aggressively expanded its buyback program—culminating in a record $12.5 billion repurchase of older, off-the-run securities on December 3, 2025—to inject liquidity into the banking system amid surging debt and market volatility, boosting bond prices, and easing inventory pressures on primary dealers.
This move is a classic example of the regime inversion toward Treasury-Fed coordination, transforming buybacks from mere cash management tools into proactive liquidity engineering that softens yields, supports asset inflation, and enables outgrowing the $28 trillion debt load without austerity or balance sheet normalization.
As Kevin Hassett emerges as the frontrunner for Fed Chair, these operations signal a new “political Fed” era where lower real rates and implicit QE-like structures align fiscal-monetary policy for growth-first priorities.

Coming out of that late-November low, stocks responded exactly as they should have. Technology (XLK) has retaken its place as the top-performing sector going back to the start of Q3, which is a strong sign of healthy risk appetite.
Also, we've seen consumer discretionary (XLY) and communications (XLC) storm back and climb into the top four spots in the sector performance rankings, which is very bullish also since these are highly growth-oriented sectors.
Meanwhile, defensive-oriented utilities (XLU) have been slipping, and consumer staples (XLP) remains in dead-last. Of course, we can't ignore healthcare (XLV) in second-place, but if you look deeper into it, you'll see that biotech is leading a major charge in that sector too.
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Editor's Note: A very clear message for the bulls – get long.
This is perhaps one of the most classical risk indicators when it comes to the stock market. We're looking at the ratio between the S&P 500 (SPY) and long-term Treasuries (TLT). This ratio tells us whether to overweight stocks or bonds, which is key to building wealth in the long-term.
The ratio has been in an uptrend for years. It started well before the QE of the 2010s, and even continued during the bear market of 2022. As long as it keeps making higher-highs and higher-lows, bonds should only be used for tactical reasons within one's portfolio.
The issue with bonds now is on the long-end, specifically in TLT. With long-term inflation staying elevated, the appeal of holding a bond for 30-years just isn't there. Stocks are likely to benefit as a result, which is why this ratio keeps climbing.

Cryptocurrencies are an important sector to help measure the market's appetite for risk. It's been the best sector to grow wealth over the past decade or so, save for a few select stocks. But since October, the sector has had a rough go.
I'm looking at the ratio between Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPY) here. Bitcoin outperformed the S&P by a wide margin from the November 2022 low. But its underperformance actually began back in July in this year, and it's worsened ever since.
We're grappling with a potential false breakout from the saucer formation on this chart. It's not a good sign that it took out that low from March. However, if this ends up being the low and Bitcoin starts to outperform again, it wouldn't be that hard to restore the integrity of the uptrend. Bitcoin bulls need to step up here and now.

The Fed is going to be cutting rates again next week, and as I've stated before, this is creating the backdrop for the next round of inflation. It's a good time to check back on the ratio between Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIP) against 7-10 Year Treasuries (IEF).
This ratio has been consolidating over the past couple of years after exploding to the upside during the inflationary wave of 2020-2022. As a rule, consolidations tend to resolve in the direction of the underlying trend, which is up.
Plus, there's the symmetrical triangle formation on this ratio chart. This is a continuation pattern specifically, but it can only be confirmed if and when close above the upper trendline of the formation.

When TIP outperforms IEF, it signals that the bond market sees inflationary pressures are climbing. When it's sideways or dropping, it means that inflationary pressures are under control. This may be the most important ratio to watch when the Fed cuts rates next week.
The Fed's playing with inflationary fire here, and if anything, Powell's prudence over the past year may be vindicated. I think his mistake was in the first half of the year, but over the past 5 months, the inflation situation has been stable compared to the labor market.

Ethereum staged a solid bounce this past week, and it actually signaled a potentially key momentum shift in this market. After a sharp selloff at the beginning of last week, Ethereum quickly rebounded and formed a higher-low.
Then, a few days later, prices rallied to exceed the high of the previous week. Although this occurred in a very short time frame, it's the first time we've seen any sort of higher-high and higher-low in months.
It held support wonderfully in the 2600-2800 range, but now, it needs to clear resistance at 3200-3300. If it does, then we should see a test of the upper trendline of the descending channel. We won't be able to give the "all clear" until it closes back above 4000-4200, however.
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